Civil Politics Discussion

[punisherthunder]

In an attempt to encourage participation and healthy discourse, this is to be a probationary thread on having a friendly and civil discussion about politics of any kind. I believe we can gain incredible insights by learning about the concerns and opinions of varying political views. Again, this is all probationary and I will heavily moderate this thread. If posts become degenerative or vile, the posts will be deleted and the thread will end.

 

 

To kick this all off, in light of the South Carolina primary results and the primary results thus far, I believe Donald Trump has the best chance to win the Presidency of the United States. Plus his wife Melania looks gorgeous in her sable and chinchilla furs too

[neoJaguar]

dunno how I feel about this.. this is a very touchy subject that can lead bad very quickly.

 

if it can be civil then maybe... but it never can.

 

will give this some thought and touch more when I'm not posting from my iPhone

[punisherthunder]

dunno how I feel about this.. this is a very touchy subject that can lead bad very quickly.

 

if it can be civil then maybe... but it never can.

 

will give this some thought and touch more when I'm not posting from my iPhone

 

 

I gotcha. Just an idea to try and encourage some folks to post more?

[AKcoyote]

I gotcha. Just an idea to try and encourage some folks to post more?

While the idea is great (get members posting more), political "discussion" almost destroyed this site several years ago.

 

Political themed posts tend to draw very angry responses from those who do not share the posters political views. When politics is the subject, civil discussion seldom occurs. However, we can try it and see what results.

 

When posting in this thread, keep in mind the admins will be watching closely and will terminate the discussion if civility does not prevail.

 

 

An observation:

To me, it seems the popularity of both Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump speaks to people being fed-up with politics as usual and the lack of any meaningful legislation out of Congress in the past 10 years.

[punisherthunder]

I gotcha. Just an idea to try and encourage some folks to post more?

While the idea is great (get members posting more), political "discussion" almost destroyed this site several years ago.

 

Political themed posts tend to draw very angry responses from those who do not share the posters political views. When politics is the subject, civil discussion seldom occurs. However, we can try it and see what results.

 

When posting in this thread, keep in mind the admins will be watching closely and will terminate the discussion if civility does not prevail.

 

 

An observation:

To me, it seems the popularity of both Bernie Sanders & Donald Trump speaks to people being fed-up with politics as usual and the lack of any meaningful legislation out of Congress in the past 10 years.

 

 

If Bernie Sanders could pull off free college tuition that would be nice as I could get my Masters and my wife her Phd.

[Fox]

When politics is the subject, civil discussion seldom occurs.

 

http://www.reasonstovotetrump.com/

[neoJaguar]

When politics is the subject, civil discussion seldom occurs.

 

http://www.reasonstovotetrump.com/

 

I like this.

[Guest]

When politics is the subject, civil discussion seldom occurs.

 

http://www.reasonstovotetrump.com/

 

Very cute, Fox. I do understand the appeal of Trump. The GOP is a lost puppy right now and conservative voters are hungry for something different. Unfortunately the choices seem to be run through the establishment or self fund, so only people with Trump levels of money can run on the anti-establishment ticket. Personally I think he is a bit of a lunatic.

 

As for Sanders: forget economics 101, the man needs to revisit basic mathematics. Anyone who says that Dead Weight Loses and Crowding Out are a "capitalist fiction" need to get off their high horse. Any economist who says that is being paid to lie.

[TiffanyFox]

As for Sanders: forget economics 101, the man needs to revisit basic mathematics. Anyone who says that Dead Weight Loses and Crowding Out are a "capitalist fiction" need to get off their high horse. Any economist who says that is being paid to lie.

 

Feel free to back up your statements with facts.

[Guest]

As for Sanders: forget economics 101, the man needs to revisit basic mathematics. Anyone who says that Dead Weight Loses and Crowding Out are a "capitalist fiction" need to get off their high horse. Any economist who says that is being paid to lie.

 

Feel free to back up your statements with facts.

 

Gladly. For the sake of ethos my degree is in mathematical economics. I know where of I speak.

 

Lets look at free college tuition. The projected enrollment rate for 18-24 year olds in 2020 is 30 million (1). Average in state tuition for state schools is $9410 per year (2). That comes to ~2.83 TRILLION dollars PER YEAR, and that is just for students out of high school and I was being generous with the estimates.. There are two options to pay for it: liquid 17% of the GDP per year or borrow.

 

Borrowing: We have one heck of an intertemporal accounting problem, which is to say we are borrowing out of our children's children's pockets. One can argue that it is worth the additional borrowing. Consider that college enrollment is higher than ever and yet we have a massive structural unemployment problem (structural unemployment is a mismatch between the skills supplied and demanded in the labor market). The fact is we are labor starved and the idea that going to a four year university is a a recipe for success is a myth. We are much better off subsidizing a revamp of our community college, trade school, and job training programs to include more technological and engineering skills. Better yet we need to rearrange our public school funding structure, update the curriculum, raise the standards for public school teachers and pay them more.

 

Liquidating GDP: The United States military spending is 3.5% of gdp (3), so ceasing all military spending and using it on college tuition does not even come close to covering the cost. Oil and natural gas mining is 2.6% (4, cont.), manufacturing is 12.1%, IT and broadcast is 4.8%. The list goes on and you can look for yourself. So, what are you going to cut? Who has to lose their job and what services are we going to forgo for a program that won't address the employment problem?

 

I am not a libertarian full blown laizze-faire capitalist. We need social services, we NEED education reform, and we have an economic mobility problem that is frankly disgusting. BUT we also have an astronomical debt that is growing all the time, a bloated budget, and a lot of really awful welfare policies that simply are not doing the job. We need to be thoughtful in the policies we enact. They need to be designed to specifically address the problems we are facing and we need to be ever thinking of unintended consequences. As an economist I am here to tell you that Sanders does not have these things in mind. He is standing on ideology and making promises he can't deliver on. I believe he means well. He is too big for his britches.

 

 

 

 

sources:

(1) http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2011/2011026.pdf

(2) http://www.collegedata.com/cs/content/content_payarticle_tmpl.jhtml?articleId=10064

(3) http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS

(4) http://www.bea.gov/iTable/iTable.cfm?ReqID=51&step=1#reqid=51&step=51&isuri=1&5114=a&5102=5

[Mr Barguzin]

AK

 

I remember that well, as my puter exploded as I was typing a furious reply to someone.

 

And as such, the Wombat will not make another post no matter how .. nope,even better. I will be ignoring this topic. I need what little hair on me head I have.

[Fox]

Gladly. For the sake of ethos my degree is in mathematical economics. I know where of I speak.

 

Lets look at free college tuition. The projected enrollment rate for 18-24 year olds in 2020 is 30 million (1). Average in state tuition for state schools is $9410 per year (2). That comes to ~2.83 TRILLION dollars PER YEAR, and that is just for students out of high school and I was being generous with the estimates.. There are two options to pay for it: liquid 17% of the GDP per year or borrow.

 

For free college tuition: take away the tax-exempt status of every church in America. If that doesn't make up the difference, cut military spending as needed. Done.

 

I'm half joking, and half serious.

[neoJaguar]

Wish my worthless college degree didn't cost as much as it did...

[Guest]

WELL SAID FOXY!! Anything I say will be a let down compared to the well-written and cited work of our resident economist! As a college professor, I see students who simply don't belong in college. We, as a society, been told for a couple of generations now that to get ahead, one must go to college. For YEARS my wife and have advocated trade schools and vocational schools. There's absolutely nothing wrong with "turning a wrench" (anyone knows you don't exactly turn a wrench, you turn the nut or the bolt). Anecdotal observations from me: I have one friend who is exactly my age. He was an elevator mechanic. I'm a college professor (full professor...top of the pay scale such as it is). My elevator mechanic friend made TWICE what I make at his base. Add in overtime and he would easily clear $200+ thousand a year. Why not be an elevator mechanic? It's dirty. It's hard. What's the problem with that? I have to remind my Oberlin-educated daughter that she isn't too good to do any sort of work. Anecdote umber two: I have a friend who is a car mechanic. He owns his own business in Main County (one of the wealthier counties in the U.S.). His shop time is $140 per hour. That means for a four hour job, he charges $560 PLUS parts. In addition if he or his tech can get the job finished in two hours, the shop still charges for four hours. In case you think this is unethical, it is SOP for repair shops. The point is: Foxy is right, Americans have abandoned the trades like rats jumping off a sinking ship. It is really pathetic how little the current generation is able to do with their hands.

 

I also agree that, as much as I applaud Sanders, the numbers simply can't add up (I didn't do the math like Foxy did). I know how much it costs to run a university. The budgets are STAGGERING! Imagine the budget for Stanford or University of Texas or any of the larger universities. He can't deliver what he is "promising". Plus it also makes no sense. Not every kid needs to go to college (see above).

 

On the other hand, I see no redeeming qualities in Trump. He has no economic plan (that I know of). Foxy do you know of anything? His immigration plan borders on ludicrous, and lastly what kind of foreign policy experience does he have? As distasteful as voting for another Clinton would be, I might just have to do that just to keep Trump out of the White House.

 

Finally, read the article from the Washington Post below.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/moment-of-truth-we-must-stop-trump/2016/02/21/0172e788-d8a7-11e5-925f-1d10062cc82d_story.html?wpisrc=nl_az_most

 

The author does an excellent job of outlining what both parties must do. Admittedly the focus is on the Republican party.

 

I DO hope we can keep this thread going and discourse civil. I think could be enlightening.

[Guest]

 

On the other hand, I see no redeeming qualities in Trump. He has no economic plan (that I know of). Foxy do you know of anything?

 

https://www.donaldjtrump.com/issues/ he has two 30 second clips, one about "jobs" and the other about "the economy" in which he says nothing.

[Guest]

WOW that's it!!!??? That's PATHETIC! I may move to Canada if he's elected.

 

Here's an overall observation of the Republican party. I detected this, but was not smart enough to vocalize it. The Republican strategy is, is to attach themselves to emotional issues like abortion and immigration, when their economic policies do not benefit the majority of folks who support them because of the emotional issues.

[Guest]

Another thought on college tuition. Again, unfortunately, not my original thought. A former student of mine who was Army EOD (explosive ordinance disposal) posted a pic on facebook that showed soldiers marching. She said "I remember marching for free tuition." Perhaps all the young people who are marching for "free college" should join the military after which they can use the GI bill. My son is now taking advantage of his five years in the Navy. He marched a LOT. Now his college is paid for. Just a thought.

[punisherthunder]

Another thought on college tuition. Again, unfortunately, not my original thought. A former student of mine who was Army EOD (explosive ordinance disposal) posted a pic on facebook that showed soldiers marching. She said "I remember marching for free tuition." Perhaps all the young people who are marching for "free college" should join the military after which they can use the GI bill. My son is now taking advantage of his five years in the Navy. He marched a LOT. Now his college is paid for. Just a thought.

 

 

That reminds of a meme I saw on Facebook the other day. It pictured U.S. soldiers marching up a hill with a caption that read "Here is the path to free college".

[Guest]

Yeah. My former student posted that. It's good. My son marched a LOT!

[punisherthunder]

Yeah. My former student posted that. It's good. My son marched a LOT!

 

 

I thank him for his service " title="Applause" />

 

 

 

After Super Tuesday, Trump could lock things up. But it looks like Mitt Romney is going to "make a statement". Wonder what the agenda is there?

[Guest]

Thank you. I will.

[neoJaguar]

I truly fear for the future of this country if Trump err Drumph is elected.

[Guest]

Me too!

[Guest]

On the domestic side I think there is a limit to the damage Trump can do. He has enemies on both sides of the aisle and he would face the same obstruction from congress that Obama did. Fingers crossed that any lunatic executive order he would make would be declared unconstitutional. Besides which I think he would get in his own way. He has zero governing experience and no coherent policy to speak of (Running a government is NOTHING to do with running a business stop making that argument).

 

I do fear for the damage he could do to foreign relations. His conduct as a candidate is precarious at the best of times, and flat out vindictive when someone provokes his grimy haired ire. Things are delicate enough as it is what with instability in the middle east, the proxy conflicts and North Korea's posturing. I doubt Trump could interpret Putin's bluster for what it is, and I shudder to think of the consequences when he inevitably ups the ante.

[AKcoyote]

Well said Foxy.

 

My opinion is that Sanders is the only candidate that might push for the changes needed in this country without causing more problems in the process. However, I also feel he would encounter the same congressional obstruction that has plagued the Obama administration.